Numbers of infections must be reduced – do we expect a corona miracle?

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This week, experts will calculate how strongly the lockdown slows down new infections.

The first week of the hard lockdown is almost over. Yesterday we had 5,226 new infections and 60 deaths in Austria. “A dramatically high figure for a Sunday,” says Health Minister Rudolf Anschober.

The country trembles before the next few days: Will the lockdown bring us the numbers miracle? The goal: new infections must be reduced to 1,000 to a maximum of 2,000 new cases per day. The R-value (which indicates how many people a person infected with the virus is infected) must drop below 0.8 to prevent further spread of the virus. Currently, we are still at 1.02. Simulation researcher Niki Popper on AUSTRIA: “The hard lockdown only takes effect from now on. The effect cannot yet be estimated, because we do not know how much people will comply with measures”.

Danger: Masses stormed in front of lockdown stores
The nervousness increases: In the days before the lockdown, people stormed the stores. Last Saturday, too, the masses pushed out into the open. Many did not want to keep their distance. Only 42% actually stay at home – according to A1 mobile phone data.

Now comes the decisive phase. Politicians are appealing to the population. Chancellor Sebastian Kurz: “It will only work if everyone participates. According to reports, last Saturday the number of new infections was to be reduced to only 5,000. In fact there were still 6,611.

According to expert Popper, it is possible to calculate from the middle of the week how strong the lockdown will be: “We saw last week that the number of new infections per day did not increase any more, we assume that it will decrease more strongly next week. His great hope: “That this week the highest number of necessary intensive care beds will be reached.